I've fallen off the cliff!

[Allan Bell]

World Health Organisation.

 

Or WHO.

 

Dr WHO.

 

Allan

 

[Pearl]

3 hours ago, dustydingo said:

 

for professional reasons (not photographic reasons) I have been doing my best to keep abreast of the real situation re COVID-19. I cannot find any reference to the WHO making such a prediction, so I am truly interested in having a link to the statement you read.

 

I have read of the Hong Kong epidemiologist who said 60% _might_ be infected, although his credentials are not reported in any useful detail and neither WHO, CDC or ProMED, as far as I can find, make reference to that claim.

 

DD

 

 

I have seen 80% quoted as the maximum that might catch it but I can't remember who said it.  My understanding is that once 80% have had it the virus fades away because most people are then immune.

 

Pearl

[John Mitchell]

10 minutes ago, Pearl said:

I have seen 80% quoted as the maximum that might catch it but I can't remember who said it.  My understanding is that once 80% have had it the virus fades away because most people are then immune.

 

Pearl

 

Containment no longer seems possible, so hopefully Coronavirus will end up being a new version of the common cold. Unfortunately, a lot more people will die worldwide before that happens.

[MDM]

6 hours ago, spacecadet said:

Fair enough but actually no-one is saying that it is "highly likely" that "most" will contract the virus.. It is the outside estimate if no containment measures are taken and is described as "unrealistic" in some quarters

Even in Hubei the incidence is less than 0.1%. In Italy it is .003%.

 

4 hours ago, dustydingo said:

 

for professional reasons (not photographic reasons) I have been doing my best to keep abreast of the real situation re COVID-19. I cannot find any reference to the WHO making such a prediction, so I am truly interested in having a link to the statement you read.

 

I have read of the Hong Kong epidemiologist who said 60% _might_ be infected, although his credentials are not reported in any useful detail and neither WHO, CDC or ProMED, as far as I can find, make reference to that claim.

 

DD

 

 

 

24 minutes ago, Pearl said:

I have seen 80% quoted as the maximum that might catch it but I can't remember who said it.  My understanding is that once 80% have had it the virus fades away because most people are then immune.

 

Pearl

 

Sorry  but I can't remember where I read that and it may be totally inaccurate. It would most likely have been the Guardian website, probably on Thursday or Friday, as that is my main source of news along with the BBC website. It certainly wasn't tabloid hysteria stuff. It is not like me to make unsupported statements so please forgive me if that is inaccurate. However, given how infectious it is, it would not seem surprising to me if the majority of the population gets it at some point (whether that is 60% or 80%). From my little bubble, I can't see how containment is going to stop it, as the timescale for producing a vaccine is at least a year, by which time it is likely to be extremely widespread. But I am not a professional in the field so ...... 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by MDM

[Harry Harrison]

This from the BBC on 3rd March, and I've heard the same as recently as yesterday:

 

"Worst case scenario modelling suggests 80% of people can become infected when there is a new virus like this."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51718917

[Harry Harrison]

...and from the Guardian on 5th March:

 

"The UK is planning for the worst case scenario, which is up to 80% infected, while hoping for the best, which would be 20%."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-minister-hints-u-turn-decision-stop-daily-uk-updates

 

 

[MDM]

30 minutes ago, Harry Harrison said:

...and from the Guardian on 5th March:

 

"The UK is planning for the worst case scenario, which is up to 80% infected, while hoping for the best, which would be 20%."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-minister-hints-u-turn-decision-stop-daily-uk-updates

 

 

 

37 minutes ago, Harry Harrison said:

This from the BBC on 3rd March, and I've heard the same as recently as yesterday:

 

"Worst case scenario modelling suggests 80% of people can become infected when there is a new virus like this."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51718917

 

Cheers Harry. I was wondering if I had imagined it. 

[Harry Harrison]

21 minutes ago, MDM said:

Cheers Harry. I was wondering if I had imagined it. 

Not that it's exactly cheering news to find that you're correct!

[Betty LaRue]

Since this virus is so new, nobody has immunity to it. When the Europeans came to America, they brought smallpox to the Indigenous people, killing huge numbers of them.

 

This event is best known as an early instance of biological warfare, in which the British gave items from a smallpox infirmary as gifts to Native American emissaries Turtleheart and Mamaltee with the hope of spreading the deadly disease to nearby tribes, as documented in William Trent's journal[13]. The effectiveness is unknown, although the method used is inefficient compared to respiratory transmission and any results of these attempts to spread the disease are difficult to differentiate from naturally occurring epidemics.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Betty LaRue

[dustydingo]

5 hours ago, Harry Harrison said:

...and from the Guardian on 5th March:

 

"The UK is planning for the worst case scenario, which is up to 80% infected, while hoping for the best, which would be 20%."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-minister-hints-u-turn-decision-stop-daily-uk-updates

 

 

 

That is well short of the statement made earlier, that it is "likely" 80% will contract it. No where have I seen a reputable estimate that it is "likely 80% will contract it" . . . well, other than the religious-nutters' "end of days" website that four weeks ago predicted there would be over 6, 000,000 dead (or something similar) by March 8 🙂.

 

DD

Edited March 9, 2020 by dustydingo

[MizBrown]

The problem is that people are deciding to either panic or to ignore having come in contact with coronavirus cases.  It's not going to kill children and healthy adults through middle age.  There are now five cases in Costa Rica, one is the husband of the first case.  He tested as having the virus but didn't have symptoms (and was the one who said he'd been in contact back in the US with someone who had it).  The wife is recovering uneventfully.  The other cases are of Costa Ricans who traveled to Italy and either their servant or a nursing aide who took care of them.  One of these three is older with other health problems and he has pneumonia.  Others appear to be recovering or at least not in bad shape.

 

"It's just the flu" is what a number of people are saying.   

 

 

[Ed Rooney]

"It's just the flu" ? The Spanish Flu in 1918-19 killed 50-million people in the world. And that was without passenger-jet travel. 

[dustydingo]

51 minutes ago, Ed Rooney said:

"It's just the flu" ? The Spanish Flu in 1918-19 killed 50-million people in the world. And that was without passenger-jet travel. 

 

Quite right Edo, it is certainly not "just the 'flu" . . . and neither is it George R. Stewart's vision come to pass.

 

It seems the public, non-epidemiological attitudes fluctuate between quite alarming exaggeration and equally alarming disregard. That's the main reason behind a recent call here for politicians and media commentators to shut up and step aside and allow a coordinated, properly informed, scientifically credible source of up-to-the-second information to keep us all informed.

 

I will not start another argument by pointing out the most recent example of  politicians absolutely misrepresenting the most basic advice re: self-isolation vs just rocking up to work, I think most of the press have at least done their job in that particular instance 🙂 

 

DD

[Marb]

Back on topic, absolutely dead. Looks like March is going the same diabolical way as Feb. Pathetic. 

[John Morrison]

40 minutes ago, Marb said:

Back on topic, absolutely dead. Looks like March is going the same diabolical way as Feb. Pathetic. 

 

Alamy… would it be possible to have a ‘discontented’ button on the forum? When clicked it would express acute disappointment… but with a different choice of words on each occasion…

[dustydingo]

10 minutes ago, John Morrison said:

 

Alamy… would it be possible to have a ‘discontented’ button on the forum? When clicked it would express acute disappointment… but with a different choice of words on each occasion…

 

Hmmm . . . I thought we already had one, and you don't even need to press it . . .

 

DD

[Marb]

1 hour ago, John Morrison said:

 

Alamy… would it be possible to have a ‘discontented’ button on the forum? When clicked it would express acute disappointment… but with a different choice of words on each occasion…

 

And while you are at it, how about a button keeping you signed into the forums without having to do it every time you visit.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Marb

[andremichel]

16 hours ago, John Mitchell said:

 

Containment no longer seems possible, so hopefully Coronavirus will end up being a new version of the common cold. Unfortunately, a lot more people will die worldwide before that happens.

Having watched the public information film by Danny Boyle, I am preparing for what is to come 28 days later.

[Betty LaRue]

My attitude about the virus is caution. Not panic, but not disregarding it. I’m one of those with pre-existing health conditions. I have a scheduled appointment with my cardiologist today, and I will go, but I’ll be careful to wash my hands and keep them away from my face. I’ll try to sit well away from others. I won’t wear a mask because it’s said it doesn’t really help.

So far this month, I have no sales but I do have some zooms, a couple of them the only zoom from the search. Apparently there are some image buyers still working!

[sb photos]

18 hours ago, Harry Harrison said:

...and from the Guardian on 5th March:

 

"The UK is planning for the worst case scenario, which is up to 80% infected, while hoping for the best, which would be 20%."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-minister-hints-u-turn-decision-stop-daily-uk-updates

 

 

 

At some time in the likely near future I have to make a decision when to avoid packed trains and the tube, as the potential risk to my health increases. I am diabetic T2, had my spleen removed after an RTA in '74, and had high blood pressure that's now at acceptable levels and am 68, so in the high risk category. Last Saturday morning in a packed train travelling into London there were multiple passengers coughing and sneezing, they had never heard of tissues. If scenarios like this continue as the virus increasingly takes hold I suspect 80% infected won't be the end of it. The difficult decision is deciding at what stage to reluctantly become partially reclusive. Time will tell.

[NYCat]

Me too, Betty. I have an appointment for my yearly physical exam on Thursday. I was in my doctor's office today to have my blood drawn so he will have results on Thursday. There is a sign on his door saying they have not had any Covid-19 cases and if we think we have it we should NOT come into the office. We should go home and call for instructions. I talked to him about it and he said they hope to continue with zero cases but the problem is that anyone who is exposed has to be quarantined. It had occurred to me that I could catch the virus at my doctor's office but not that I could be quarantined even if I didn't catch it. We only have 19 cases in all of New York City so I am going to get the physical and be glad to have it over before there is a problem here. I am also due for my six month dental check-up and in three weeks I have an appointment for the preparation of my dental implant to get the crown. I'm not at all sure about doing that. If there is an epidemic later I'll be sorry I put it off. I also am due to see my nurse practitioner at Sloan-Kettering next month. Since it's a cancer hospital and people on chemo have poor immune health they always have signs saying we need to speak up about any signs of illness we have. I actually trust them to postpone appointments if they think that is necessary. I don't suppose the virus has reached Kansas so you should be fine.

 

Paulette

[Betty LaRue]

52 minutes ago, NYCat said:

Me too, Betty. I have an appointment for my yearly physical exam on Thursday. I was in my doctor's office today to have my blood drawn so he will have results on Thursday. There is a sign on his door saying they have not had any Covid-19 cases and if we think we have it we should NOT come into the office. We should go home and call for instructions. I talked to him about it and he said they hope to continue with zero cases but the problem is that anyone who is exposed has to be quarantined. It had occurred to me that I could catch the virus at my doctor's office but not that I could be quarantined even if I didn't catch it. We only have 19 cases in all of New York City so I am going to get the physical and be glad to have it over before there is a problem here. I am also due for my six month dental check-up and in three weeks I have an appointment for the preparation of my dental implant to get the crown. I'm not at all sure about doing that. If there is an epidemic later I'll be sorry I put it off. I also am due to see my nurse practitioner at Sloan-Kettering next month. Since it's a cancer hospital and people on chemo have poor immune health they always have signs saying we need to speak up about any signs of illness we have. I actually trust them to postpone appointments if they think that is necessary. I don't suppose the virus has reached Kansas so you should be fine.

 

Paulette

Actually we do have a case near Kansas City, another at the University of Kansas, and a couple of more waiting results in my area.The only state around us with no cases, unless it has changed, is Missouri and Arkansas. I’ll bet that changes soon. I do believe it will soon be in all states. 
I’ve been thinking of you a lot, because the largest cities have so many more travelers. But when you consider only 19 in such a large population, it’s not so bad.

It’s all very fluid, though.

I hate what’s happening in nursing homes. I actually know first-hand how uneducated and sloppy the workers are in nursing homes. Many of them are so lazy, they think it’s too much trouble and work to maintain sterile procedures. I witnessed one raising my mother’s urine bag high over her body which resulted in contaminated urine flowing back into her. It’s no wonder she had constant bladder infections.  
I don’t know what the answer is for those poor, sweet people. My mother was kept at home as long as we could do so, until we just couldn’t meet her needs any longer. She’s gone now this past 8 years.

Betty

[riccarbi]

Here in Cremona, Italy, we have all been put in quarantine together with 16 million other people in Northern Italy, we can't exit from our area, but we can still go to work and all shops are open. Yet, schools are closed, together with museums, gyms, theaters, and so on. What is suprising is how quick this infection spreads, despite the many precautions we are all taking; there are 294 cases today in the city (with a population of 70,000), they were 122 two days ago. My 93-year-old mother is currenly at home since Sunday with couch and fever; happily I and my sister, who is a physician, can assist her full-time; obviously wearing chirurgical mask, disposable gloves and white coats.  It emerged that one of the most dangerous behaviours is to congregate in small and crowdy places, such as bars, cinemas, trains, and the like.
Anyway people here try to live as usual, when possible and taking all prescribed precautions. This too shall pass...

Edited March 9, 2020 by riccarbi

[John Mitchell]

1 hour ago, Betty LaRue said:

Actually we do have a case near Kansas City, another at the University of Kansas, and a couple of more waiting results in my area.The only state around us with no cases, unless it has changed, is Missouri and Arkansas. I’ll bet that changes soon. I do believe it will soon be in all states. 
I’ve been thinking of you a lot, because the largest cities have so many more travelers. But when you consider only 19 in such a large population, it’s not so bad.

It’s all very fluid, though.

I hate what’s happening in nursing homes. I actually know first-hand how uneducated and sloppy the workers are in nursing homes. Many of them are so lazy, they think it’s too much trouble and work to maintain sterile procedures. I witnessed one raising my mother’s urine bag high over her body which resulted in contaminated urine flowing back into her. It’s no wonder she had constant bladder infections.  
I don’t know what the answer is for those poor, sweet people. My mother was kept at home as long as we could do so, until we just couldn’t meet her needs any longer. She’s gone now this past 8 years.

Betty

 

You're right about nursing home workers. I've seen things firsthand as well. Some workers are true saints and others are really careless and have to be watched all the time. It's a crime (literally) what goes on in some care homes, even in super expensive private ones. If you're an old person in one of these places and you have no one advocating for you, you're in big trouble.

[John Mitchell]

19 minutes ago, riccarbi said:

Here in Cremona, Italy, we have all been put in quarantine together with 16 million other people in Northern Italy, we can't exit from our area, but we can still go to work and all shops are open. Yet, schools are closed, together with museums, gyms, theaters, and so on. What is suprising is how quick this infection spreads, despite the many precautions we are all taking; there are 294 cases today in the city (with a population of 70,000), they were 122 two days ago. My 93-year-old mother is currenly at home since Sunday with couch and fever; happily I and my sister, who is a physician, can assist her full-time; obviously wearing chirurgical mask, disposable gloves and white coats.  It emerged that one of the most dangerous behaviours is to congregate in small and crowdy places, such as bars, cinemas, trains, and the like.
Anyway people here try to live as usual, when possible and taking all prescribed precautions. This too shall pass...

 

Let's hope that things start to improve in Italy. Realistically, though, it sounds as if the situation will probably get worse before it starts to get better. You sound as if you have a positive attitude, which should help matters.